Wheat

Friday’s Recap
Friday’s Wheat market was mostly lower with the March contract losing 5’0 to 582’6. Combined volume came in at a one month high of 226,885, with March seeing a heavy 106,334 traded. Across all maturities, open interest decreased by 15,011 (3.15%), with March lower by 20,269, or 10.38%, to 175,019.

Technicals
Today officially marks the 1-month anniversary of the contract low. Since then, the market has been working hard to carve out a trend of higher lows and higher highs. Last week’s price action continued to aid the Bullish setup on the chart, but the Bulls still have their work cut out for them. Consecutive closes back above 4-star resistance from 596 3/4-599 1/2 could be the catalyst to spark a bigger short covering rally.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 588 3/4**, 596 3/4-599 1/2****
Pivot: 574 1/2-577 1/2
Support: 564 3/4-569***, 548 1/2-554 3/4***

Popular Options
Option trading centered around the May 620 calls with 2,549 done and the March 560 puts with volume of 1,106. Calls with the greatest open interest are the May 620 strike (12,800), and for the puts are the March 520 strike (7,452).

Volatility Update
As measured by WVL, implied volatility was down, dropping 0.66 to close at a one week low of 31.24. Adding 0.0886% to a one month high, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) ended at 26.33%. The WVL Skew closed moderately lower, dropping by 0.2 to settle at 5.53.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 2.10.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for May wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update

(Updated on 2.10.25)

• Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 20k futures/options contracts through 2/4/25, majority of which was short covering.  That shrunk their net long position to 90,442.  Broken down, that’s about 165k shorts VS 74k longs. 

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